MLS Match Board — Sunday, March 8, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, March 8, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, March 8, 2026 · how the model graded

ML0-2−2.0u

Over 2.52-0+1.7u

BTTS0-2—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, March 8

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 0–3

xG2.0–1.1

RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✗57%2.0xG-130fair-150mkt-3.5%

DRWDraw24%—xG+320fair+348mkt+1.5%

MTLCF MontréalAWAY20%1.1xG+410fair+469mkt+2.0%

O2.5 59% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 58% ✗

FT · 0–1

xG1.6–1.1

CINFC CincinnatiHOME✗47%1.6xG+114fair-117mkt-7.1%

DRWDraw28%—xG+260fair+299mkt+2.7%

TORToronto FCAWAY25%1.1xG+293fair+368mktModel lean+4.1%

O2.5 49% · mkt 54% ✓BTTS 53% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).