MLS Match Board — Saturday, March 14, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, March 14, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, March 14, 2026 · how the model graded

ML5-7−3.7u

Over 2.59-3+5.1u

BTTS9-3—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, March 14

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–1

xG1.5–1.2

TORToronto FCHOME✗43%1.5xG+131fair+145mkt+2.5%

DRWDraw28%—xG+256fair+272mkt+1.2%

RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY29%1.2xG+250fair+210mkt-3.7%

O2.5 50% · mkt 53% ✓BTTS 55% ✓

FT · 3–1

xG1.4–1.5

ATLAtlanta United FCHOME35%1.4xG+187fair+147mkt-5.6%

DRWDraw27%—xG+272fair+256mkt-1.2%

PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY✗38%1.5xG+161fair+219mktModel lean+6.9%

O2.5 56% · mkt 50% ✓BTTS 60% ✓

FT · 0–1

xG1.7–1.4

CLBColumbus CrewHOME✗43%1.7xG+132fair-150mkt-17.0%

DRWDraw26%—xG+287fair+381mktModel lean+5.1%

NSHNashville SCAWAY31%1.4xG+221fair+410mktModel lean+11.5%

O2.5 60% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 62% ✗

FT · 2–1

xG2.0–1.3

ORLOrlando City SCHOME✓52%2.0xG-108fair-104mkt+0.9%

DRWDraw24%—xG+325fair+299mkt-1.6%

MTLCF MontréalAWAY25%1.3xG+307fair+318mkt+0.6%

O2.5 65% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 65% ✓

FT · 0–0

xG1.6–1.9

CLTCharlotte FCHOME33%1.6xG+200fair+136mkt-9.1%

DRWDraw24%—xG+317fair+291mkt-1.6%

MIAInter Miami CFAWAY✗43%1.9xG+134fair+211mktModel lean+10.5%

O2.5 68% ✗BTTS 69% ✗

FT · 3–1

xG1.9–1.3

NYCNew York City FCHOME✓52%1.9xG-106fair-154mkt-9.1%

DRWDraw24%—xG+313fair+331mkt+1.0%

COLColorado RapidsAWAY24%1.3xG+313fair+522mktModel lean+8.2%

O2.5 62% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG2.0–1.1

CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✗57%2.0xG-135fair-144mkt-1.5%

DRWDraw24%—xG+322fair+327mkt+0.3%

DCD.C. UnitedAWAY19%1.1xG+431fair+481mkt+1.6%

O2.5 58% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 57% ✓

FT · 3–3

xG1.5–1.4

DALFC DallasHOME✗39%1.5xG+158fair+153mkt-0.9%

DRWDraw27%—xG+264fair+289mkt+1.8%

SDSan Diego FCAWAY34%1.4xG+196fair+190mkt-0.6%

O2.5 54% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 58% ✓

FT · 3–2

xG1.7–1.1

HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✓50%1.7xG+100fair-132mkt-7.0%

DRWDraw26%—xG+286fair+309mkt+1.5%

PORPortland TimbersAWAY24%1.1xG+314fair+447mktModel lean+5.9%

O2.5 55% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 57% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.8–1.2

RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✓49%1.8xG+104fair-119mkt-5.4%

DRWDraw25%—xG+293fair+314mkt+1.3%

ATXAustin FCAWAY26%1.2xG+292fair+369mktModel lean+4.2%

O2.5 58% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 60% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG2.3–1.2

LALA GalaxyHOME✗60%2.3xG-149fair-160mkt-1.6%

DRWDraw21%—xG+369fair+381mkt+0.5%

SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY19%1.2xG+432fair+462mkt+1.0%

O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 2–0

xG2.2–1.1

LAFCLAFCHOME✓61%2.2xG-159fair-223mkt-7.6%

DRWDraw21%—xG+372fair+451mkt+3.0%

STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY17%1.1xG+476fair+692mktModel lean+4.7%

O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 62% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).