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MLS Match Board — Saturday, March 7, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, March 7, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, March 7, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 259 of 450 on Over 2.5, 212 of 450 on BTTS.

Saturday, March 7

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 5–0
xG1.9–1.3
Match page →
NYCNew York City FCHOME✓51%1.9xG-102fair-142mkt-8.1%
Draw24%—xG+314fair+351mkt+2.0%
ORLOrlando City SCAWAY25%1.3xG+295fair+424mktModel lean+6.2%
O2.5 63% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 64% ✗1H O1.5 43% ✗
FT · 1–2
xG1.4–1.8
Match page →
DCD.C. UnitedHOME28%1.4xG+258fair+413mktModel lean+8.4%
Draw25%—xG+303fair+376mkt+3.8%
MIAInter Miami CFAWAY✓47%1.8xG+112fair-147mkt-12.2%
O2.5 62% ✓BTTS 64% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✗
FT · 2–3
xG1.6–1.3
Match page →
ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✗42%1.6xG+139fair+136mkt-0.5%
Draw27%—xG+270fair+262mkt-0.6%
RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY31%1.3xG+222fair+235mkt+1.3%
O2.5 55% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 59% ✓1H O1.5 37% ✗
FT · 3–1
xG1.6–1.4
Match page →
CLTCharlotte FCHOME✓42%1.6xG+137fair+117mkt-3.8%
Draw27%—xG+277fair+263mkt-1.1%
ATXAustin FCAWAY31%1.4xG+220fair+277mktModel lean+4.8%
O2.5 57% · mkt 49% ✓BTTS 61% ✓1H O1.5 39% ✗
FT · 0–0
xG1.9–1.5
Match page →
CLBColumbus CrewHOME✗47%1.9xG+112fair-102mkt-3.1%
Draw24%—xG+315fair+280mkt-2.3%
CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY29%1.5xG+249fair+323mktModel lean+5.0%
O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 67% ✗1H O1.5 45% ✓
FT · 0–1
xG1.9–1.4
Match page →
PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✗48%1.9xG+111fair+106mkt-1.0%
Draw24%—xG+310fair+294mkt-1.0%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY28%1.4xG+256fair+283mkt+2.0%
O2.5 64% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 65% ✗1H O1.5 44% ✓
FT · 0–1
xG1.5–1.7
Match page →
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME32%1.5xG+214fair+314mktModel lean+7.8%
Draw25%—xG+293fair+342mkt+2.9%
SDSan Diego FCAWAY✓43%1.7xG+135fair-114mkt-10.7%
O2.5 61% ✗BTTS 64% ✗1H O1.5 42% ✓
FT · 3–1
xG1.9–1.2
Match page →
NSHNashville SCHOME✓52%1.9xG-106fair-141mkt-7.0%
Draw25%—xG+304fair+336mkt+1.8%
MINMinnesota United FCAWAY24%1.2xG+321fair+434mktModel lean+5.0%
O2.5 59% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 60% ✓1H O1.5 40% ✗
FT · 0–1
xG1.7–1.6
Match page →
STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✗39%1.7xG+155fair+226mktModel lean+8.5%
Draw25%—xG+294fair+279mkt-1.0%
SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY35%1.6xG+182fair+133mkt-7.4%
O2.5 62% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 65% ✗1H O1.5 43% ✓
FT · 4–1
xG1.9–1.5
Match page →
COLColorado RapidsHOME✓48%1.9xG+109fair+131mktModel lean+4.6%
Draw24%—xG+319fair+302mkt-1.0%
LALA GalaxyAWAY28%1.5xG+254fair+215mkt-3.5%
O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 67% ✓1H O1.5 46% ✓
FT · 1–0
xG2.3–1.0
Match page →
LAFCLAFCHOME✓65%2.3xG-189fair-254mkt-6.3%
Draw20%—xG+392fair+462mkt+2.5%
DALFC DallasAWAY14%1.0xG+602fair+883mktModel lean+4.1%
O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 58% ✗1H O1.5 43% ✓
FT · 1–4
xG1.3–1.7
Match page →
PORPortland TimbersHOME28%1.3xG+253fair+341mktModel lean+5.7%
Draw26%—xG+287fair+356mkt+3.9%
VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✓46%1.7xG+118fair-123mkt-9.2%
O2.5 58% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 61% ✓1H O1.5 40% ✓

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).