MLS Match Board — Saturday, March 7, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, March 7, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, March 7, 2026 · how the model graded

ML8-4+2.1u

Over 2.57-5+1.8u

BTTS6-6—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, March 7

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 5–0

xG1.9–1.3

NYCNew York City FCHOME✓51%1.9xG-102fair-142mkt-8.1%

DRWDraw24%—xG+314fair+351mkt+2.0%

ORLOrlando City SCAWAY25%1.3xG+295fair+424mktModel lean+6.2%

O2.5 63% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 64% ✗

FT · 1–2

xG1.4–1.8

DCD.C. UnitedHOME28%1.4xG+258fair+413mktModel lean+8.4%

DRWDraw25%—xG+303fair+376mkt+3.8%

MIAInter Miami CFAWAY✓47%1.8xG+112fair-147mkt-12.2%

O2.5 62% ✓BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 0–0

xG1.9–1.5

CLBColumbus CrewHOME✗47%1.9xG+112fair-102mkt-3.1%

DRWDraw24%—xG+315fair+280mkt-2.3%

CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY29%1.5xG+249fair+323mktModel lean+5.0%

O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 67% ✗

FT · 2–3

xG1.6–1.3

ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✗42%1.6xG+139fair+136mkt-0.5%

DRWDraw27%—xG+270fair+262mkt-0.6%

RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY31%1.3xG+222fair+235mkt+1.3%

O2.5 55% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 3–1

xG1.6–1.4

CLTCharlotte FCHOME✓42%1.6xG+137fair+117mkt-3.8%

DRWDraw27%—xG+277fair+263mkt-1.1%

ATXAustin FCAWAY31%1.4xG+220fair+277mktModel lean+4.8%

O2.5 57% · mkt 49% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 0–1

xG1.9–1.4

PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✗48%1.9xG+111fair+106mkt-1.0%

DRWDraw24%—xG+310fair+294mkt-1.0%

SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY28%1.4xG+256fair+283mkt+2.0%

O2.5 64% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 65% ✗

FT · 0–1

xG1.5–1.7

SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME32%1.5xG+214fair+314mktModel lean+7.8%

DRWDraw25%—xG+293fair+342mkt+2.9%

SDSan Diego FCAWAY✓43%1.7xG+135fair-114mkt-10.7%

O2.5 61% ✗BTTS 64% ✗

FT · 3–1

xG1.9–1.2

NSHNashville SCHOME✓52%1.9xG-106fair-141mkt-7.0%

DRWDraw25%—xG+304fair+336mkt+1.8%

MINMinnesota United FCAWAY24%1.2xG+321fair+434mktModel lean+5.0%

O2.5 59% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 60% ✓

FT · 0–1

xG1.7–1.6

STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✗39%1.7xG+155fair+226mktModel lean+8.5%

DRWDraw25%—xG+294fair+279mkt-1.0%

SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY35%1.6xG+182fair+133mkt-7.4%

O2.5 62% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 65% ✗

FT · 4–1

xG1.9–1.5

COLColorado RapidsHOME✓48%1.9xG+109fair+131mktModel lean+4.6%

DRWDraw24%—xG+319fair+302mkt-1.0%

LALA GalaxyAWAY28%1.5xG+254fair+215mkt-3.5%

O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 67% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG2.3–1.0

LAFCLAFCHOME✓65%2.3xG-189fair-254mkt-6.3%

DRWDraw20%—xG+392fair+462mkt+2.5%

DALFC DallasAWAY14%1.0xG+602fair+883mktModel lean+4.1%

O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 58% ✗

FT · 1–4

xG1.3–1.7

PORPortland TimbersHOME28%1.3xG+253fair+341mktModel lean+5.7%

DRWDraw26%—xG+287fair+356mkt+3.9%

VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✓46%1.7xG+118fair-123mkt-9.2%

O2.5 58% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).