MLS Match Board — Saturday, March 21, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, March 21, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, March 21, 2026 · how the model graded

ML6-4+4.1u

Over 2.56-4+0.6u

BTTS6-4—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, March 21

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 2–1

xG1.4–1.3

TORToronto FCHOME✓37%1.4xG+168fair+247mktModel lean+8.6%

DRWDraw29%—xG+250fair+277mkt+2.0%

CLBColumbus CrewAWAY34%1.3xG+193fair+125mkt-10.4%

O2.5 49% · mkt 52% ✗BTTS 55% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG1.9–1.4

PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✗47%1.9xG+111fair+160mktModel lean+9.1%

DRWDraw25%—xG+307fair+240mkt-4.8%

CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY28%1.4xG+258fair+207mkt-4.6%

O2.5 63% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 5–0

xG2.2–1.2

NSHNashville SCHOME✓59%2.2xG-145fair-182mkt-5.3%

DRWDraw22%—xG+360fair+401mkt+1.8%

ORLOrlando City SCAWAY19%1.2xG+426fair+541mkt+3.4%

O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 63% ✗

FT · 0–0

xG1.6–1.2

ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✗46%1.6xG+118fair+120mkt+0.5%

DRWDraw27%—xG+273fair+263mkt-0.7%

DCD.C. UnitedAWAY27%1.2xG+267fair+272mkt+0.4%

O2.5 54% · mkt 51% ✗BTTS 57% ✗

FT · 6–1

xG1.7–1.3

CLTCharlotte FCHOME✓46%1.7xG+117fair+124mkt+1.3%

DRWDraw26%—xG+288fair+259mkt-2.1%

RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY28%1.3xG+254fair+262mkt+0.6%

O2.5 59% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 3–1

xG2.0–1.2

STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✓57%2.0xG-131fair+103mktModel lean+7.5%

DRWDraw23%—xG+334fair+300mkt-1.9%

NENew England RevolutionAWAY20%1.2xG+396fair+290mkt-5.5%

O2.5 62% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 4–3

xG1.8–1.2

DALFC DallasHOME✓49%1.8xG+103fair+151mktModel lean+9.5%

DRWDraw26%—xG+290fair+260mkt-2.2%

HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY25%1.2xG+299fair+210mkt-7.2%

O2.5 57% · mkt 54% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 1–4

xG1.6–1.7

SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME34%1.6xG+192fair+182mkt-1.2%

DRWDraw25%—xG+302fair+262mkt-2.7%

COLColorado RapidsAWAY✓41%1.7xG+145fair+170mkt+3.8%

O2.5 64% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 66% ✓

FT · 0–0

xG1.3–1.7

ATXAustin FCHOME27%1.3xG+273fair+318mkt+2.9%

DRWDraw26%—xG+288fair+285mkt-0.2%

LAFCLAFCAWAY✗47%1.7xG+111fair-101mkt-2.7%

O2.5 58% · mkt 52% ✗BTTS 60% ✗

FT · 0–1

xG2.2–1.2

VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✗60%2.2xG-153fair-147mkt+0.9%

DRWDraw21%—xG+368fair+321mkt-2.4%

SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY18%1.2xG+449fair+490mkt+1.3%

O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 63% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).