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MLS Match Board — Saturday, March 21, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, March 21, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, March 21, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 449 of 450 on ML, 258 of 450 on Over 2.5, 211 of 450 on BTTS.

Saturday, March 21

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 2–1
xG1.4–1.3
Match page →
TORToronto FCHOME✓37%1.4xG+168fair+247mktModel lean+8.6%
Draw29%—xG+250fair+277mkt+2.0%
CLBColumbus CrewAWAY34%1.3xG+193fair+125mkt-10.4%
O2.5 49% · mkt 52% ✗BTTS 55% ✓1H O1.5 34% ✓
FT · 1–2
xG1.9–1.4
Match page →
PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✗47%1.9xG+111fair+160mktModel lean+9.1%
Draw25%—xG+307fair+240mkt-4.8%
CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY28%1.4xG+258fair+207mkt-4.6%
O2.5 63% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 64% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✗
FT · 5–0
xG2.2–1.2
Match page →
NSHNashville SCHOME✓59%2.2xG-145fair-182mkt-5.3%
Draw22%—xG+360fair+401mkt+1.8%
ORLOrlando City SCAWAY19%1.2xG+426fair+541mkt+3.4%
O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 63% ✗1H O1.5 45% ✗
FT · 0–0
xG1.6–1.2
Match page →
ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✗46%1.6xG+118fair+120mkt+0.5%
Draw27%—xG+273fair+263mkt-0.7%
DCD.C. UnitedAWAY27%1.2xG+267fair+272mkt+0.4%
O2.5 54% · mkt 51% ✗BTTS 57% ✗1H O1.5 36% ✓
FT · 6–1
xG1.7–1.3
Match page →
CLTCharlotte FCHOME✓46%1.7xG+117fair+124mkt+1.3%
Draw26%—xG+288fair+259mkt-2.1%
RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY28%1.3xG+254fair+262mkt+0.6%
O2.5 59% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 61% ✓1H O1.5 40% ✓
FT · 3–1
xG2.0–1.2
Match page →
STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✓57%2.0xG-131fair+103mktModel lean+7.5%
Draw23%—xG+334fair+300mkt-1.9%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY20%1.2xG+396fair+290mkt-5.5%
O2.5 62% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 61% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✗
FT · 4–3
xG1.8–1.2
Match page →
DALFC DallasHOME✓49%1.8xG+103fair+151mktModel lean+9.5%
Draw26%—xG+290fair+260mkt-2.2%
HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY25%1.2xG+299fair+210mkt-7.2%
O2.5 57% · mkt 54% ✓BTTS 59% ✓1H O1.5 39% ✗
FT · 1–4
xG1.6–1.7
Match page →
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME34%1.6xG+192fair+182mkt-1.2%
Draw25%—xG+302fair+262mkt-2.7%
COLColorado RapidsAWAY✓41%1.7xG+145fair+170mkt+3.8%
O2.5 64% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 66% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✗
FT · 0–0
xG1.3–1.7
Match page →
ATXAustin FCHOME27%1.3xG+273fair+318mkt+2.9%
Draw26%—xG+288fair+285mkt-0.2%
LAFCLAFCAWAY✗47%1.7xG+111fair-101mkt-2.7%
O2.5 58% · mkt 52% ✗BTTS 60% ✗1H O1.5 39% ✓
FT · 0–1
xG2.2–1.2
Match page →
VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✗60%2.2xG-153fair-147mkt+0.9%
Draw21%—xG+368fair+321mkt-2.4%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY18%1.2xG+449fair+490mkt+1.3%
O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 63% ✗1H O1.5 45% ✓

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).