MLS Match Board — Sunday, March 22, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, March 22, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, March 22, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-4−3.3u

Over 2.53-2+0.8u

BTTS4-1—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, March 22

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 2–3

xG1.7–1.5

NYCNew York City FCHOME✗43%1.7xG+135fair+135mkt+0.1%

DRWDraw25%—xG+293fair+278mkt-1.0%

MIAInter Miami CFAWAY32%1.5xG+213fair+221mkt+0.7%

O2.5 61% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 4–3

xG1.7–1.2

CINFC CincinnatiHOME✓48%1.7xG+110fair-126mkt-8.1%

DRWDraw26%—xG+283fair+322mkt+2.5%

MTLCF MontréalAWAY26%1.2xG+281fair+389mktModel lean+5.8%

O2.5 56% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 0–0

xG1.5–1.5

MINMinnesota United FCHOME✗37%1.5xG+168fair+153mkt-2.2%

DRWDraw26%—xG+280fair+258mkt-1.6%

SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY36%1.5xG+175fair+207mkt+3.8%

O2.5 59% · mkt 51% ✗BTTS 62% ✗

FT · 1–1

xG1.7–1.5

PORPortland TimbersHOME✗43%1.7xG+132fair+145mkt+2.3%

DRWDraw25%—xG+295fair+302mkt+0.4%

LALA GalaxyAWAY32%1.5xG+217fair+193mkt-2.6%

O2.5 62% ✗BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 2–2

xG1.9–1.2

SDSan Diego FCHOME✗54%1.9xG-116fair+103mktModel lean+4.4%

DRWDraw24%—xG+313fair+314mkt+0.1%

RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY22%1.2xG+352fair+273mkt-4.7%

O2.5 60% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 60% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).