MLS Match Board — Sunday, March 15, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, March 15, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, March 15, 2026 · how the model graded

ML2-1+0.9u

Over 2.52-1−0.3u

BTTS1-2—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, March 15

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 6–1

xG1.5–1.3

NENew England RevolutionHOME✓41%1.5xG+143fair+146mkt+0.5%

DRWDraw27%—xG+266fair+281mkt+1.1%

CINFC CincinnatiAWAY32%1.3xG+217fair+205mkt-1.2%

O2.5 54% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 58% ✓

FT · 6–0

xG2.3–1.1

VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓63%2.3xG-173fair-193mkt-2.5%

DRWDraw21%—xG+380fair+394mkt+0.6%

MINMinnesota United FCAWAY16%1.1xG+534fair+607mkt+1.6%

O2.5 65% ✓BTTS 60% ✗

FT · 0–1

xG1.7–1.4

SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✗43%1.7xG+134fair+128mkt-1.1%

DRWDraw26%—xG+284fair+296mkt+0.8%

SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY31%1.4xG+220fair+223mkt+0.3%

O2.5 59% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 62% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).