MLS Match Board — Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Every MLS match on Wednesday, May 13, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, May 13, 2026 · how the model graded

ML9-5+6.3u

Over 2.512-2+2.1u

BTTS9-5—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Wednesday, May 13

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 0–1

xG1.7–1.3

CLTCharlotte FCHOME✗45%1.7xG+120fair+169mktModel lean+8.3%

DRWDraw26%—xG+280fair+267mkt-1.0%

NYCNew York City FCAWAY28%1.3xG+253fair+181mkt-7.2%

O2.5 56% · mkt 53% ✗BTTS 60% ✗

FT · 2–2

xG1.8–1.2

MTLCF MontréalHOME✗49%1.8xG+103fair+114mkt+2.5%

DRWDraw26%—xG+290fair+299mkt+0.6%

PORPortland TimbersAWAY25%1.2xG+297fair+259mkt-2.7%

O2.5 57% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 3–2

xG1.6–1.5

RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✓39%1.6xG+159fair+211mktModel lean+6.4%

DRWDraw26%—xG+281fair+306mkt+1.6%

CLBColumbus CrewAWAY35%1.5xG+184fair+131mkt-8.1%

O2.5 59% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 4–3

xG1.6–1.6

ORLOrlando City SCHOME✓38%1.6xG+166fair+166mkt-0.1%

DRWDraw25%—xG+292fair+290mkt-0.1%

PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY37%1.6xG+170fair+173mkt+0.3%

O2.5 62% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 65% ✓

FT · 3–5

xG1.9–2.0

CINFC CincinnatiHOME35%1.9xG+185fair+227mktModel lean+4.6%

DRWDraw22%—xG+345fair+327mkt-1.0%

MIAInter Miami CFAWAY✓42%2.0xG+136fair+119mkt-3.4%

O2.5 75% ✓BTTS 74% ✓

FT · 0–3

xG1.4–1.6

NENew England RevolutionHOME33%1.4xG+205fair+203mkt-0.3%

DRWDraw27%—xG+274fair+252mkt-1.7%

NSHNashville SCAWAY✓41%1.6xG+147fair+158mkt+1.8%

O2.5 57% · mkt 49% ✓BTTS 60% ✗

FT · 1–3

xG1.8–1.5

DCD.C. UnitedHOME✗43%1.8xG+134fair+203mktModel lean+9.7%

DRWDraw25%—xG+299fair+278mkt-1.4%

CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY32%1.5xG+211fair+148mkt-8.1%

O2.5 63% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 65% ✓

FT · 3–1

xG1.3–1.9

SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME26%1.3xG+290fair+323mkt+2.0%

DRWDraw25%—xG+305fair+319mkt+0.8%

LALA GalaxyAWAY✗50%1.9xG+101fair-110mkt-2.6%

O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 0–1

xG1.9–1.5

MINMinnesota United FCHOME✗47%1.9xG+111fair-121mkt-7.4%

DRWDraw24%—xG+317fair+322mkt+0.2%

COLColorado RapidsAWAY29%1.5xG+249fair+369mktModel lean+7.3%

O2.5 66% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 67% ✗

FT · 2–3

xG1.4–1.7

DALFC DallasHOME29%1.4xG+240fair+278mkt+3.0%

DRWDraw26%—xG+291fair+276mkt-1.0%

VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✓45%1.7xG+122fair+113mkt-2.0%

O2.5 60% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.5–1.5

STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✓38%1.5xG+161fair+185mkt+3.2%

DRWDraw27%—xG+277fair+282mkt+0.3%

LAFCLAFCAWAY35%1.5xG+184fair+159mkt-3.4%

O2.5 58% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 3–0

xG1.7–1.2

RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✓46%1.7xG+116fair-134mkt-11.0%

DRWDraw27%—xG+277fair+325mkt+3.0%

HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY27%1.2xG+267fair+417mktModel lean+7.9%

O2.5 55% ✓BTTS 58% ✗

FT · 3–2

xG1.7–1.5

SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✓42%1.7xG+136fair-137mkt-15.4%

DRWDraw25%—xG+293fair+348mkt+3.1%

SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY32%1.5xG+211fair+406mktModel lean+12.4%

O2.5 61% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 5–0

xG2.2–1.4

SDSan Diego FCHOME✓56%2.2xG-126fair-122mkt+0.7%

DRWDraw22%—xG+360fair+349mkt-0.5%

ATXAustin FCAWAY22%1.4xG+345fair+346mkt+0.1%

O2.5 70% ✓BTTS 68% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).