MLS Match Board — Saturday, May 16, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, May 16, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, May 16, 2026 · how the model graded

ML2-11−9.6u

Over 2.55-8−4.2u

BTTS10-3—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, May 16

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 0–2

xG1.7–1.6

MTLCF MontréalHOME✗38%1.7xG+162fair+206mktModel lean+5.5%

DRWDraw25%—xG+301fair+286mkt-1.0%

CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY37%1.6xG+172fair+143mkt-4.3%

O2.5 64% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 67% ✗

FT · 1–1

xG1.6–1.4

DCD.C. UnitedHOME✗41%1.6xG+142fair+127mkt-2.8%

DRWDraw26%—xG+281fair+273mkt-0.5%

STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY32%1.4xG+209fair+246mkt+3.5%

O2.5 58% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG1.7–1.5

RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✗40%1.7xG+147fair+180mktModel lean+4.7%

DRWDraw26%—xG+290fair+286mkt-0.3%

NYCNew York City FCAWAY34%1.5xG+195fair+161mkt-4.5%

O2.5 61% ✗BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.5–1.5

NENew England RevolutionHOME36%1.5xG+176fair+159mkt-2.4%

DRWDraw27%—xG+273fair+270mkt-0.2%

MINMinnesota United FCAWAY✗37%1.5xG+170fair+192mkt+2.7%

O2.5 57% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG1.9–1.4

ORLOrlando City SCHOME✗48%1.9xG+107fair+127mktModel lean+4.1%

DRWDraw24%—xG+318fair+300mkt-1.1%

ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY28%1.4xG+259fair+224mkt-3.0%

O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 66% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG1.7–1.2

PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✗48%1.7xG+110fair+149mktModel lean+7.4%

DRWDraw27%—xG+276fair+277mkt+0.1%

CLBColumbus CrewAWAY26%1.2xG+287fair+203mkt-7.2%

O2.5 54% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 57% ✓

FT · 3–1

xG1.5–1.1

CLTCharlotte FCHOME✓46%1.5xG+116fair-127mkt-9.8%

DRWDraw28%—xG+260fair+325mktModel lean+4.3%

TORToronto FCAWAY26%1.1xG+285fair+410mktModel lean+6.3%

O2.5 49% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 54% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG1.2–1.7

HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME25%1.2xG+299fair+304mkt+0.3%

DRWDraw26%—xG+279fair+301mkt+1.5%

VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✗49%1.7xG+106fair-101mkt-1.6%

O2.5 54% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 57% ✗

FT · 1–2

xG2.0–1.3

ATXAustin FCHOME✗54%2.0xG-118fair-151mkt-6.2%

DRWDraw23%—xG+328fair+369mkt+2.1%

SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY23%1.3xG+342fair+442mktModel lean+4.2%

O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

FT · 0–2

xG2.1–1.2

SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✗57%2.1xG-133fair-133mkt-0.1%

DRWDraw23%—xG+344fair+340mkt-0.2%

LALA GalaxyAWAY20%1.2xG+390fair+387mkt-0.1%

O2.5 65% ✗BTTS 63% ✗

FT · 3–3

xG2.3–1.5

SDSan Diego FCHOME✗54%2.3xG-117fair+105mktModel lean+5.2%

DRWDraw21%—xG+369fair+339mkt-1.4%

CINFC CincinnatiAWAY25%1.5xG+304fair+259mkt-3.1%

O2.5 74% ✓BTTS 72% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.8–1.5

RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✓45%1.8xG+123fair-136mkt-12.8%

DRWDraw25%—xG+302fair+353mkt+2.8%

COLColorado RapidsAWAY30%1.5xG+230fair+395mktModel lean+10.1%

O2.5 63% ✓BTTS 65% ✓

FT · 2–3

xG2.0–1.3

SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✗54%2.0xG-118fair+103mktModel lean+4.9%

DRWDraw23%—xG+328fair+307mkt-1.2%

DALFC DallasAWAY23%1.3xG+343fair+287mkt-3.3%

O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).