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MLS Match Board — Sunday, May 10, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, May 10, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, May 10, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 258 of 449 on Over 2.5, 211 of 449 on BTTS.

Sunday, May 10

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 3–0
xG1.5–1.2
Match page →
NYCNew York City FCHOME✓42%1.5xG+136fair+162mktModel lean+4.3%
Draw28%—xG+260fair+277mkt+1.3%
CLBColumbus CrewAWAY30%1.2xG+236fair+186mkt-5.2%
O2.5 51% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 56% ✗1H O1.5 35% ✗
FT · 2–2
xG2.2–1.2
Match page →
MINMinnesota United FCHOME✗59%2.2xG-145fair-139mkt+1.1%
Draw22%—xG+361fair+336mkt-1.3%
ATXAustin FCAWAY19%1.2xG+422fair+431mkt+0.3%
O2.5 66% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 63% ✓1H O1.5 46% ✓
FT · 1–4
xG1.8–0.9
Match page →
LAFCLAFCHOME✗58%1.8xG-136fair-139mkt-0.4%
Draw25%—xG+303fair+330mkt+1.6%
HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY17%0.9xG+472fair+436mkt-1.2%
O2.5 52% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 51% ✓1H O1.5 35% ✗

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).