MLS Match Board — Sunday, May 10, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, May 10, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, May 10, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-2−0.4u

Over 2.53-0+2.1u

BTTS2-1—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, May 10

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 3–0

xG1.5–1.2

NYCNew York City FCHOME✓42%1.5xG+136fair+162mktModel lean+4.3%

DRWDraw28%—xG+260fair+277mkt+1.3%

CLBColumbus CrewAWAY30%1.2xG+236fair+186mkt-5.2%

O2.5 51% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 56% ✗

FT · 2–2

xG2.2–1.2

MINMinnesota United FCHOME✗59%2.2xG-145fair-139mkt+1.1%

DRWDraw22%—xG+361fair+336mkt-1.3%

ATXAustin FCAWAY19%1.2xG+422fair+431mkt+0.3%

O2.5 66% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

FT · 1–4

xG1.8–0.9

LAFCLAFCHOME✗58%1.8xG-136fair-139mkt-0.4%

DRWDraw25%—xG+303fair+330mkt+1.6%

HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY17%0.9xG+472fair+436mkt-1.2%

O2.5 52% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 51% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).