MLS Match Board — Saturday, May 23, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, May 23, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, May 23, 2026 · how the model graded

ML8-4+3.3u

Over 2.59-3+0.8u

BTTS10-2—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, May 23

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 3–0

xG2.2–1.1

STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✓61%2.2xG-158fair-127mktModel lean+5.4%

DRWDraw21%—xG+370fair+328mkt-2.1%

ATXAustin FCAWAY17%1.1xG+473fair+384mkt-3.2%

O2.5 66% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 62% ✗

FT · 1–1

xG1.9–1.4

MINMinnesota United FCHOME✗48%1.9xG+108fair+126mkt+3.8%

DRWDraw25%—xG+307fair+275mkt-2.1%

RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY27%1.4xG+265fair+246mkt-1.5%

O2.5 63% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 4–4

xG1.6–1.2

DCD.C. UnitedHOME✗47%1.6xG+113fair+113mkt+0.0%

DRWDraw27%—xG+273fair+287mkt+1.0%

MTLCF MontréalAWAY26%1.2xG+280fair+264mkt-1.2%

O2.5 53% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 57% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG1.8–1.2

CLTCharlotte FCHOME✓52%1.8xG-107fair-103mkt+0.9%

DRWDraw25%—xG+301fair+303mkt+0.2%

NENew England RevolutionAWAY23%1.2xG+328fair+316mkt-0.7%

O2.5 58% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 59% ✗

FT · 6–2

xG2.3–1.7

CINFC CincinnatiHOME✓52%2.3xG-108fair-126mkt-3.7%

DRWDraw21%—xG+373fair+378mkt+0.2%

ORLOrlando City SCAWAY27%1.7xG+273fair+334mkt+3.8%

O2.5 76% ✓BTTS 74% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG2.0–1.1

CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓57%2.0xG-133fair-185mkt-7.9%

DRWDraw23%—xG+330fair+402mkt+3.3%

TORToronto FCAWAY20%1.1xG+406fair+549mktModel lean+4.3%

O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 60% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG1.7–1.7

SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME37%1.7xG+174fair+214mktModel lean+4.7%

DRWDraw25%—xG+304fair+325mkt+1.2%

RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY✓39%1.7xG+159fair+125mkt-5.9%

O2.5 65% ✓BTTS 67% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.8–1.1

NSHNashville SCHOME✓51%1.8xG-106fair-123mkt-3.7%

DRWDraw26%—xG+290fair+307mkt+1.1%

NYCNew York City FCAWAY23%1.1xG+337fair+395mkt+2.7%

O2.5 55% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 57% ✓

FT · 1–3

xG1.6–2.0

PORPortland TimbersHOME30%1.6xG+231fair+159mkt-8.4%

DRWDraw24%—xG+325fair+321mkt-0.3%

SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY✓46%2.0xG+116fair+165mktModel lean+8.5%

O2.5 69% ✓BTTS 69% ✓

FT · 2–4

xG1.5–2.0

SDSan Diego FCHOME27%1.5xG+266fair+250mkt-1.3%

DRWDraw23%—xG+327fair+322mkt-0.3%

VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✓49%2.0xG+103fair+111mkt+1.8%

O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 68% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG1.7–1.4

COLColorado RapidsHOME✗42%1.7xG+139fair+133mkt-1.1%

DRWDraw26%—xG+287fair+290mkt+0.2%

DALFC DallasAWAY32%1.4xG+209fair+217mkt+0.8%

O2.5 60% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG1.7–1.2

LALA GalaxyHOME✗47%1.7xG+111fair+137mktModel lean+5.1%

DRWDraw27%—xG+277fair+286mkt+0.6%

HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY26%1.2xG+283fair+216mkt-5.5%

O2.5 54% ✗BTTS 57% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).