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MLS Match Board — Saturday, May 23, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, May 23, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, May 23, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 258 of 449 on Over 2.5, 211 of 449 on BTTS.

Saturday, May 23

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 3–0
xG2.2–1.1
Match page →
STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✓61%2.2xG-158fair-127mktModel lean+5.4%
Draw21%—xG+370fair+328mkt-2.1%
ATXAustin FCAWAY17%1.1xG+473fair+384mkt-3.2%
O2.5 66% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 62% ✗1H O1.5 45% ✓
FT · 1–1
xG1.9–1.4
Match page →
MINMinnesota United FCHOME✗48%1.9xG+108fair+126mkt+3.8%
Draw25%—xG+307fair+275mkt-2.1%
RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY27%1.4xG+265fair+246mkt-1.5%
O2.5 63% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 64% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✓
FT · 1–0
xG1.8–1.2
Match page →
CLTCharlotte FCHOME✓52%1.8xG-107fair-103mkt+0.9%
Draw25%—xG+301fair+303mkt+0.2%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY23%1.2xG+328fair+316mkt-0.7%
O2.5 58% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 59% ✗1H O1.5 39% ✓
FT · 6–2
xG2.3–1.7
Match page →
CINFC CincinnatiHOME✓52%2.3xG-108fair-126mkt-3.7%
Draw21%—xG+373fair+378mkt+0.2%
ORLOrlando City SCAWAY27%1.7xG+273fair+334mkt+3.8%
O2.5 76% ✓BTTS 74% ✓1H O1.5 54% ✓
FT · 4–4
xG1.6–1.2
Match page →
DCD.C. UnitedHOME✗47%1.6xG+113fair+113mkt+0.0%
Draw27%—xG+273fair+287mkt+1.0%
MTLCF MontréalAWAY26%1.2xG+280fair+264mkt-1.2%
O2.5 53% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 57% ✓1H O1.5 36% ✗
FT · 2–1
xG2.0–1.1
Match page →
CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓57%2.0xG-133fair-185mkt-7.9%
Draw23%—xG+330fair+402mkt+3.3%
TORToronto FCAWAY20%1.1xG+406fair+549mktModel lean+4.3%
O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 60% ✓1H O1.5 41% ✗
FT · 1–2
xG1.7–1.7
Match page →
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME37%1.7xG+174fair+214mktModel lean+4.7%
Draw25%—xG+304fair+325mkt+1.2%
RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY✓39%1.7xG+159fair+125mkt-5.9%
O2.5 65% ✓BTTS 67% ✓1H O1.5 45% ✗
FT · 2–1
xG1.8–1.1
Match page →
NSHNashville SCHOME✓51%1.8xG-106fair-123mkt-3.7%
Draw26%—xG+290fair+307mkt+1.1%
NYCNew York City FCAWAY23%1.1xG+337fair+395mkt+2.7%
O2.5 55% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 57% ✓1H O1.5 37% ✗
FT · 1–3
xG1.6–2.0
Match page →
PORPortland TimbersHOME30%1.6xG+231fair+159mkt-8.4%
Draw24%—xG+325fair+321mkt-0.3%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY✓46%2.0xG+116fair+165mktModel lean+8.5%
O2.5 69% ✓BTTS 69% ✓1H O1.5 47% ✗
FT · 2–4
xG1.5–2.0
Match page →
SDSan Diego FCHOME27%1.5xG+266fair+250mkt-1.3%
Draw23%—xG+327fair+322mkt-0.3%
VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✓49%2.0xG+103fair+111mkt+1.8%
O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 68% ✓1H O1.5 46% ✗
FT · 1–2
xG1.7–1.4
Match page →
COLColorado RapidsHOME✗42%1.7xG+139fair+133mkt-1.1%
Draw26%—xG+287fair+290mkt+0.2%
DALFC DallasAWAY32%1.4xG+209fair+217mkt+0.8%
O2.5 60% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 63% ✓1H O1.5 41% ✗
FT · 1–1
xG1.7–1.2
Match page →
LALA GalaxyHOME✗47%1.7xG+111fair+137mktModel lean+5.1%
Draw27%—xG+277fair+286mkt+0.6%
HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY26%1.2xG+283fair+216mkt-5.5%
O2.5 54% ✗BTTS 57% ✓1H O1.5 37% ✗

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).