MLS Match Board — Sunday, May 24, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, May 24, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, May 24, 2026 · how the model graded

ML3-0+2.0u

Over 2.51-2−1.0u

BTTS1-2—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, May 24

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 2–0

xG1.7–1.1

CLBColumbus CrewHOME✓50%1.7xG+101fair-150mkt-10.2%

DRWDraw27%—xG+274fair+365mktModel lean+5.2%

ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY24%1.1xG+325fair+456mktModel lean+5.5%

O2.5 52% ✗BTTS 55% ✗

FT · 6–4

xG2.2–1.3

MIAInter Miami CFHOME✓57%2.2xG-132fair-241mkt-13.7%

DRWDraw22%—xG+352fair+508mktModel lean+5.7%

PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY21%1.3xG+377fair+691mktModel lean+8.3%

O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 65% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG1.8–1.3

LAFCLAFCHOME✓47%1.8xG+111fair+107mkt-0.9%

DRWDraw26%—xG+292fair+300mkt+0.5%

SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY27%1.3xG+268fair+272mkt+0.3%

O2.5 59% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 61% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).