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MLS Match Board — Sunday, May 17, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, May 17, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, May 17, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 258 of 449 on Over 2.5, 211 of 449 on BTTS.

Sunday, May 17

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 2–0
xG2.6–1.2
Match page →
MIAInter Miami CFHOME✓66%2.6xG-197fair-290mkt-8.1%
Draw19%—xG+440fair+592mktModel lean+4.1%
PORPortland TimbersAWAY15%1.2xG+560fair+811mktModel lean+4.2%
O2.5 73% ✗BTTS 65% ✗1H O1.5 51% ✓
FT · 3–2
xG1.6–1.3
Match page →
NSHNashville SCHOME✓45%1.6xG+124fair+128mkt+0.9%
Draw27%—xG+276fair+267mkt-0.7%
LAFCLAFCAWAY29%1.3xG+248fair+244mkt-0.4%
O2.5 56% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 59% ✓1H O1.5 38% ✗

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).