MLS Match Board — Sunday, May 17, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, May 17, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, May 17, 2026 · how the model graded

ML2-0+1.5u

Over 2.51-1+0.7u

BTTS1-1—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, May 17

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 2–0

xG2.6–1.2

MIAInter Miami CFHOME✓66%2.6xG-197fair-290mkt-8.1%

DRWDraw19%—xG+440fair+592mktModel lean+4.1%

PORPortland TimbersAWAY15%1.2xG+560fair+811mktModel lean+4.2%

O2.5 73% ✗BTTS 65% ✗

FT · 3–2

xG1.6–1.3

NSHNashville SCHOME✓45%1.6xG+124fair+128mkt+0.9%

DRWDraw27%—xG+276fair+267mkt-0.7%

LAFCLAFCAWAY29%1.3xG+248fair+244mkt-0.4%

O2.5 56% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).