MatchWiz
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Serie A Match Board

Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — the WizLine (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.

⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most — and this league is priced off actual goals, not xG, so trust it even less until it grades out; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
Today · how the model graded
2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 42 of 48 on ML, 41 of 48 on Over 2.5, 42 of 48 on BTTS.

Sunday, September 20

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 1–1
Proj0.9–1.7
Match page →
FIOFiorentinaHOME20%0.9proj+403fair+232mkt-10.3%
Draw27%—proj+276fair+261mkt-1.2%
NAPNapoliAWAY✗54%1.7proj-115fair+137mktModel lean+11.3%
O2.5 48% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 51% · mkt 57% ✓1H O1.5 33% · mkt 33% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 2–0
Proj1.0–1.7
Match page →
FROFrosinoneHOME22%1.0proj+363fair+512mktModel lean+5.3%
Draw27%—proj+276fair+404mktModel lean+6.8%
COMOComoAWAY✗52%1.7proj-107fair-176mkt-12.0%
O2.5 50% ✗BTTS 53% · mkt 63% ✗1H O1.5 34% · mkt 46% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 2–1
Proj0.9–0.9
Match page →
PARParmaHOME31%0.9proj+220fair+227mkt+0.7%
Draw✗35%—proj+184fair+214mkt+3.3%
GENGenoaAWAY34%0.9proj+198fair+167mkt-4.0%
O2.5 28% · mkt 38% ✗BTTS 37% · mkt 47% ✗1H O0.5 55% · mkt 62% ✓
CBSSN · Paramount+
12:00 PM ET
Proj1.3–1.0
Match page →
JUVJuventusHOME40%1.3proj+147fair-134mkt-16.9%
Draw31%—proj+227fair+312mktModel lean+6.3%
ATAAtalantaAWAY29%1.0proj+245fair+453mktModel lean+10.9%
O2.5 41% · mkt 53%BTTS 48% · mkt 52%1H O1.5 28% · mkt 35%
Paramount+
2:45 PM ET
Proj1.4–0.8
Match page →
MILAC MilanHOME51%1.4proj-106fair-311mkt-24.3%
Draw29%—proj+241fair+531mktModel lean+13.5%
LECLecceAWAY19%0.8proj+418fair+1090mktModel lean+10.9%
O2.5 39% · mkt 60%BTTS 43% · mkt 45%1H O1.5 27% · mkt 40%
Paramount+

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).