Champions League Match Board — Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Every Champions League match on Wednesday, October 1, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, October 1

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 2–0

FK Qarabagvs KBH

F.C. København

Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

FT · 0–4

Union St.-Gilloisevs NEW

Newcastle United

Lotto Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

FT · 2–0

Arsenalvs

Olympiacos

Emirates Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

FT · 2–2

AS Monacovs MNC

Manchester City

Stade Louis II · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

FT · 1–2

Barcelonavs PSG

Paris Saint-Germain

Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

FT · 1–1

Bayer Leverkusenvs PSV

PSV Eindhoven

BayArena · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

FT · 4–1

Borussia Dortmundvs ATH

Athletic Club

Signal Iduna Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

FT · 2–1

Napolivs

Sporting CP

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

FT · 2–2

Villarrealvs JUV

Juventus

Estadio de la Cerámica · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).