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Champions League Match Board — Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Every Champions League match on Tuesday, February 17, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Tuesday, February 17, 2026 · how the model graded
2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 5 of 6 on Over 2.5.

2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Tuesday, February 17

MatchupProbProjFairMkt
FT · 5–2
Proj1.1–1.2
Match page →
GALGalatasarayHOME32%1.1proj+213fair—mkt
Draw31%—proj+226fair—mkt
JUVJuventusAWAY✗37%1.2proj+168fair—mkt
O2.5 41% ✗BTTS 49% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 2–3
Proj1.2–2.4
Match page →
MONAS MonacoHOME17%1.2proj+484fair—mkt
Draw20%—proj+391fair—mkt
PSGParis Saint-GermainAWAY✓63%2.4proj-167fair—mkt
O2.5 69% ✓BTTS 64% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 0–1
Proj1.8–2.0
Match page →
SLBBenficaHOME34%1.8proj+192fair—mkt
Draw23%—proj+334fair—mkt
RMAReal MadridAWAY✓43%2.0proj+134fair—mkt
O2.5 72% ✗BTTS 72% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 2–0
Proj1.9–1.4
Match page →
DORBorussia DortmundHOME✓48%1.9proj+107fair—mkt
Draw25%—proj+307fair—mkt
ATAAtalantaAWAY27%1.4proj+268fair—mkt
O2.5 63% ✗BTTS 64% ✗
CBSSN · Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).