Champions League Match Board — Wednesday, February 18, 2026

Every Champions League match on Wednesday, February 18, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, February 18, 2026 · how the model graded

2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Wednesday, February 18

MatchupProbProjFairMkt

FT · 1–6

Proj1.1–2.6

Match page →

FK QarabagHOME13%1.1proj+669fair—mkt

Draw18%—proj+467fair—mkt

Newcastle UnitedAWAY✓69%2.6proj-226fair—mkt

O2.5 72% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

Paramount+

FT · 3–1

Proj1.7–1.6

Match page →

Bodo/GlimtHOME✓39%1.7proj+153fair—mkt

Draw25%—proj+298fair—mkt

InternazionaleAWAY35%1.6proj+183fair—mkt

O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 66% ✓

Paramount+

FT · 3–3

Proj2.1–1.6

Match page →

Club BruggeHOME✗47%2.1proj+113fair—mkt

Draw23%—proj+338fair—mkt

Atlético MadridAWAY30%1.6proj+232fair—mkt

O2.5 71% ✓BTTS 71% ✓

CBSSN · Paramount+

FT · 0–2

Proj1.6–1.3

Match page →

OlympiacosHOME✗44%1.6proj+125fair—mkt

Draw27%—proj+275fair—mkt

Bayer LeverkusenAWAY29%1.3proj+245fair—mkt

O2.5 55% ✗BTTS 59% ✗

Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).