Champions League Match Board — Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Every Champions League match on Wednesday, February 25, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, February 25, 2026 · how the model graded

2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Wednesday, February 25

MatchupProbProjFairMkt

FT · 4–1

Proj1.5–1.5

Match page →

AtalantaHOME✓38%1.5proj+164fair—mkt

Draw26%—proj+278fair—mkt

Borussia DortmundAWAY36%1.5proj+180fair—mkt

O2.5 58% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

Paramount+

FT · 3–2

Proj1.8–1.4

Match page →

JuventusHOME45%1.8proj+122fair—mkt

Draw25%—proj+300fair—mkt

GalatasarayAWAY30%1.4proj+235fair—mkt

O2.5 63%BTTS 64%

CBSSN · Paramount+

FT · 2–2

Proj3.0–1.0

Match page →

Paris Saint-GermainHOME✗77%3.0proj-329fair—mkt

Draw14%—proj+607fair—mkt

AS MonacoAWAY9%1.0proj+991fair—mkt

O2.5 78% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

Paramount+

FT · 2–1

Proj2.3–1.1

Match page →

Real MadridHOME✓63%2.3proj-171fair—mkt

Draw20%—proj+390fair—mkt

BenficaAWAY16%1.1proj+506fair—mkt

O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).