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Champions League Match Board — Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Every Champions League match on Tuesday, March 10, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Tuesday, March 10, 2026 · how the model graded
2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Tuesday, March 10

MatchupProbProjFairMkt
FT · 1–0
Proj1.4–1.6
Match page →
GALGalatasarayHOME32%1.4proj+212fair—mkt
Draw26%—proj+284fair—mkt
LIVLiverpoolAWAY✗42%1.6proj+138fair—mkt
O2.5 59% ✗BTTS 62% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 1–6
Proj1.2–1.8
Match page →
ATAAtalantaHOME24%1.2proj+321fair—mkt
Draw25%—proj+297fair—mkt
MUNBayern MunichAWAY✓51%1.8proj-104fair—mkt
O2.5 57% ✓BTTS 59% ✓
CBSSN · Paramount+
FT · 5–2
Proj1.8–1.3
Match page →
ATMAtlético MadridHOME✓47%1.8proj+112fair—mkt
Draw25%—proj+297fair—mkt
TOTTottenham HotspurAWAY28%1.3proj+262fair—mkt
O2.5 60% ✓BTTS 62% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 1–1
Proj2.5–1.4
Match page →
NEWNewcastle UnitedHOME✗61%2.5proj-157fair—mkt
Draw20%—proj+405fair—mkt
BARBarcelonaAWAY19%1.4proj+424fair—mkt
O2.5 74% ✗BTTS 69% ✓
Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).