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Champions League Match Board — Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Every Champions League match on Wednesday, March 11, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, March 11, 2026 · how the model graded
2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Wednesday, March 11

MatchupProbProjFairMkt
FT · 1–1
Proj1.1–1.8
Match page →
B04Bayer LeverkusenHOME23%1.1proj+340fair—mkt
Draw25%—proj+299fair—mkt
ARSArsenalAWAY✗52%1.8proj-109fair—mkt
O2.5 57% ✗BTTS 58% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 3–0
Proj2.3–1.5
Match page →
RMAReal MadridHOME✓55%2.3proj-120fair—mkt
Draw21%—proj+370fair—mkt
MNCManchester CityAWAY24%1.5proj+314fair—mkt
O2.5 74% ✓BTTS 71% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 3–0
Proj1.9–1.5
Match page →
BODOBodo/GlimtHOME✓47%1.9proj+112fair—mkt
Draw24%—proj+320fair—mkt
SCPSporting CPAWAY29%1.5proj+245fair—mkt
O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 67% ✗
CBSSN · Paramount+
FT · 5–2
Proj2.5–1.3
Match page →
PSGParis Saint-GermainHOME✓63%2.5proj-171fair—mkt
Draw19%—proj+419fair—mkt
CHEChelseaAWAY18%1.3proj+466fair—mkt
O2.5 74% ✓BTTS 68% ✓
Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).