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Champions League Match Board — Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Every Champions League match on Tuesday, March 17, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Tuesday, March 17, 2026 · how the model graded
2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Tuesday, March 17

MatchupProbProjFairMkt
FT · 5–0
Proj1.7–1.6
Match page →
SCPSporting CPHOME38%1.7proj+161fair—mkt
Draw25%—proj+299fair—mkt
BODOBodo/GlimtAWAY37%1.6proj+173fair—mkt
O2.5 64%BTTS 66%
CBSSN · Paramount+
FT · 1–2
Proj1.7–1.8
Match page →
MNCManchester CityHOME36%1.7proj+179fair—mkt
Draw24%—proj+319fair—mkt
RMAReal MadridAWAY✓40%1.8proj+148fair—mkt
O2.5 69% ✓BTTS 70% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 2–0
Proj2.2–0.9
Match page →
ARSArsenalHOME✓67%2.2proj-199fair—mkt
Draw21%—proj+383fair—mkt
B04Bayer LeverkusenAWAY13%0.9proj+682fair—mkt
O2.5 59% ✗BTTS 53% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 0–3
Proj1.9–2.3
Match page →
CHEChelseaHOME31%1.9proj+218fair—mkt
Draw21%—proj+378fair—mkt
PSGParis Saint-GermainAWAY✓48%2.3proj+110fair—mkt
O2.5 80% ✓BTTS 78% ✗
Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).