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Champions League Match Board — Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Every Champions League match on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, March 18, 2026 · how the model graded
2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Wednesday, March 18

MatchupProbProjFairMkt
FT · 7–2
Proj1.8–1.6
Match page →
BARBarcelonaHOME✓40%1.8proj+148fair—mkt
Draw25%—proj+308fair—mkt
NEWNewcastle UnitedAWAY35%1.6proj+184fair—mkt
O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 68% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 4–0
Proj1.9–1.0
Match page →
LIVLiverpoolHOME✓56%1.9proj-126fair—mkt
Draw25%—proj+306fair—mkt
GALGalatasarayAWAY20%1.0proj+410fair—mkt
O2.5 55% ✓BTTS 56% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 4–1
Proj3.5–0.9
Match page →
MUNBayern MunichHOME✓85%3.5proj-552fair—mkt
Draw10%—proj+888fair—mkt
ATAAtalantaAWAY5%0.9proj+1820fair—mkt
O2.5 81% ✓BTTS 58% ✓
CBSSN · Paramount+
FT · 3–2
Proj1.9–1.9
Match page →
TOTTottenham HotspurHOME38%1.9proj+160fair—mkt
Draw23%—proj+339fair—mkt
ATMAtlético MadridAWAY✗39%1.9proj+158fair—mkt
O2.5 74% ✓BTTS 74% ✓
Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).