Champions League Match Board — Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Every Champions League match on Tuesday, April 7, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Tuesday, April 7, 2026 · how the model graded

2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Tuesday, April 7

MatchupProbProjFairMkt

FT · 1–2

Proj2.1–2.1

Match page →

Real MadridHOME✗40%2.1proj+149fair—mkt

Draw21%—proj+369fair—mkt

Bayern MunichAWAY38%2.1proj+160fair—mkt

O2.5 80% ✓BTTS 78% ✓

Paramount+

FT · 0–1

Proj1.5–1.6

Match page →

Sporting CPHOME36%1.5proj+179fair—mkt

Draw26%—proj+287fair—mkt

ArsenalAWAY✓38%1.6proj+161fair—mkt

O2.5 61% ✗BTTS 64% ✗

Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).