Champions League Match Board — Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Every Champions League match on Tuesday, April 14, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Tuesday, April 14, 2026 · how the model graded

2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Tuesday, April 14

MatchupProbProjFairMkt

FT · 1–2

Proj2.9–1.6

Match page →

Atlético MadridHOME✗62%2.9proj-166fair—mkt

Draw18%—proj+461fair—mkt

BarcelonaAWAY20%1.6proj+404fair—mkt

O2.5 83% ✓BTTS 76% ✓

Paramount+

FT · 0–2

Proj1.7–1.5

Match page →

LiverpoolHOME✗40%1.7proj+147fair—mkt

Draw25%—proj+295fair—mkt

Paris Saint-GermainAWAY34%1.5proj+192fair—mkt

O2.5 63% ✗BTTS 65% ✗

Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).