Champions League Match Board — Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Every Champions League match on Wednesday, April 15, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, April 15, 2026 · how the model graded

2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Wednesday, April 15

MatchupProbProjFairMkt

FT · 0–0

Proj2.1–1.0

Match page →

ArsenalHOME✗62%2.1proj-166fair—mkt

Draw22%—proj+352fair—mkt

Sporting CPAWAY15%1.0proj+548fair—mkt

O2.5 59% ✗BTTS 55% ✗

Paramount+

FT · 4–3

Proj2.8–1.4

Match page →

Bayern MunichHOME✓67%2.8proj-202fair—mkt

Draw17%—proj+481fair—mkt

Real MadridAWAY16%1.4proj+528fair—mkt

O2.5 80% ✓BTTS 72% ✓

Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).