Champions League Match Board — Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Every Champions League match on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.
Tuesday, April 28, 2026 · how the model graded
2025-26 · last season · all graded matches
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.
Tuesday, April 28
MatchupProbProjFairMkt
Paris Saint-GermainHOME✓52%2.4proj-106fair—mktDraw21%—proj+385fair—mkt
Bayern MunichAWAY28%1.8proj+259fair—mktO2.5 79% ✓BTTS 76% ✓
CBS · Paramount+
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).