Champions League Match Board — Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Every Champions League match on Wednesday, April 29, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, April 29, 2026 · how the model graded

2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Wednesday, April 29

MatchupProbProjFairMkt

FT · 1–1

Proj1.4–1.6

Match page →

Atlético MadridHOME33%1.4proj+207fair—mkt

Draw26%—proj+282fair—mkt

ArsenalAWAY✗41%1.6proj+142fair—mkt

O2.5 59% ✗BTTS 62% ✓

CBS · Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).