Champions League Match Board — Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Every Champions League match on Tuesday, May 5, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Tuesday, May 5, 2026 · how the model graded

2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Tuesday, May 5

MatchupProbProjFairMkt

FT · 1–0

Proj2.1–1.0

Match page →

ArsenalHOME✓60%2.1proj-150fair—mkt

Draw23%—proj+342fair—mkt

Atlético MadridAWAY17%1.0proj+475fair—mkt

O2.5 60% ✗BTTS 58% ✗

CBS · Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).