Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Top hits spot: Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. The lefty is hitting .259 H/PA against righties this year — and .296 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties lately — .278 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .143 in 7 career PA against Miles Mikolas, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Curtis Mead (WSH) (92) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .257 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.357), hitter's park.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (89) vs RHP Walker Buehler: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316).
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (86) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Nick Gonzales (PIT) (86) vs RHP Will Warren: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Andrés Chaparro (WSH) (84) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .252 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.357), hitter's park.
- Kyle Karros (COL) (81) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a solid bat at .234 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hitter's park.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (80) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.421).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Kumar Rocker has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Colson Montgomery (CWS).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Curtis Mead (WSH), Andrés Chaparro (WSH), and James Wood (WSH).
- RHP Luis Castillo has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN).
- RHP Walker Buehler has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .238 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .306 against lefties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Shea Langeliers (ATH), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jacob Wilson (ATH), and Chase DeLauter (CLE). Cold but due to bounce back: TJ Rumfield (COL), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), and Anthony Seigler (BOS).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.