Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Tuesday, July 21, 2026: Elly De La Cruz (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Jacob Wilson (95), Luis García Jr. (91), Cole Carrigg (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, July 21, 2026?

Yes — Elly De La Cruz got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .234 against righties this year. Jacob Wilson (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year. Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .254 against lefties this year. Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .298 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Luis Castillo has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Mike Trout (LAA). RHP Kumar Rocker has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Braden Montgomery (CWS), and Munetaka Murakami (CWS). RHP Walker Buehler has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 65% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 65%

Top 10

10/10100%

season 66%

Full slate

147/23463%

season 58%

Top call Elly De La Cruz came through. Drake Baldwin didn't.

Final · 2–5

MINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup69 Final · 2–1

LADaway

PHIhomeTop matchup66 Final · 12–2

TBaway

TORhomeTop matchup74 Final · 8–3

SDaway

ATLhomeTop matchup81 Final · 4–0

NYMaway

MILhomeTop matchup60 Final · 2–3

SFaway

KChomeTop matchup76 Final · 2–11

DETaway

CHChomeTop matchup61 Final · 0–10

CWSaway

TEXhomeTop matchup71 Final · 3–5

MIAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup79 Final · 7–8

WSHaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–5

STLaway

LAAhomeTop matchup75 Final · 5–6

ATHaway

AZhomeTop matchup95 Final · 4–2

CINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting60 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 294 shownScore

153 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsCWS· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T1
Ben Williamson2B
TB@TOR· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T1
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@TOR· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
4
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsWSH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #5
T4
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@ATL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T4
Alec Burleson1B
STL@LAA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T4
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsCIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T4
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsLAD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T4
Nick FortesC
TB@TOR· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T4
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@MIL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T4
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsCWS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #224
12
Jake McCarthyCF
COLvsWSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T12
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #4
T12
James WoodRF
WSH@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #8
T12
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@COL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T12
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsWSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T12
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T12
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T12
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #23
T12
Yandy DíazDH
TB@TOR· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #24
T12
Ty France1B
SD@ATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T12
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T12
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T12
Tommy White3B
ATH@AZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #49
T12
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #51
T12
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T12
Junior Caminero3B
TB@TOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T12
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T12
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T12
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@TOR· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T12
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@TOR· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T12
Manny Machado3B
SD@ATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T12
Dillon DinglerC
DET@CHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T12
Jim JarvisSS
ATLvsSD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T12
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@HOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T12
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsDET· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T12
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T12
George SpringerDH
TORvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T12
Matt VierlingCF
DET@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T12
Jose SiriCF
LAAvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T12
Max KeplerLF
AZvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #141
T12
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T12
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsSF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #156
T12
Carson BengeRF
NYM@MIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T12
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsCWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T12
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T12
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T12
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T12
Luis TorrensC
NYM@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T12
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T12
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T12
Jared Young1B
NYM@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #220
T12
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@TOR· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #221
T12
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #228
T12
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H
56
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T56
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T56
José TenaDH
WSH@COL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #6
T56
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T56
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T56
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T56
Willi Castro2B
COLvsWSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #18
T56
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T56
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T56
Jonah HeimC
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T56
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T56
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T56
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T56
Nathaniel LoweDH
CIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T56
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T56
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T56
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T56
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T56
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T56
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #46
T56
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T56
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T56
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T56
Daylen LileLF
WSH@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T56
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T56
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T56
Andy PagesCF
LAD@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T56
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T56
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T56
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T56
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T56
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T56
Iván HerreraDH
STL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T56
Tim TawaLF
AZvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T56
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T56
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T56
Jose TrevinoC
CIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T56
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T56
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T56
Carter JensenC
KCvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T56
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T56
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T56
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T56
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T56
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T56
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T56
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T56
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T56
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #118
T56
Carson KellyC
CHCvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T56
Jesus RodriguezC
SF@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T56
Josh BellDH
MIN@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T56
Luis CampusanoC
SD@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T56
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T56
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T56
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T56
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@AZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #146
T56
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T56
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T56
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T56
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T56
Starling MarteRF
KCvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T56
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T56
Michael Massey2B
KCvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T56
Max Muncy3B
LAD@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T56
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T56
Cam CauleyCF
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T56
Ben MalgeriRF
DET@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T56
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T56
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWS@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T56
Elias DíazC
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T56
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T56
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T56
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T56
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T56
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T56
Drew GilbertCF
SF@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T56
Weston Wilson3B
SEAvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T56
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T56
Christian Koss2B
SF@KC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T56
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsMIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T56
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T56
Lucas SpenceCF
HOUvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T56
Cooper PrattSS
MILvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T56
Luis RengifoLF
SD@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T56
Joe MackC
MIA@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T56
Myles StrawRF
TORvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T56
Eliezer AlfonzoC
LAD@PHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #223
T56
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #226
T56
Bryan TorresLF
STL@LAA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #227
T56
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #229
T56
Ian HappLF
CHCvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #231
T56
Jorge BarrosaCF
AZvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #234
T56
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T56
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@CLE· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T56
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsNYM· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T56
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsSF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T56
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) is the top hits matchup on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 board at 100, with Jake McCarthy (COL) and Jacob Wilson (ATH) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. The lefty is hitting .234 H/PA against righties this year — and .323 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Luis Castillo has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .421 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Luis Castillo, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs LHP Carson Palmquist: a strong bat at .260 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), hitter's park, hot bat.
Jacob Wilson (ATH) (95) vs LHP Kohl Drake: a strong bat at .261 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) (91) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .254 into an arm tough on the same side (.171), hitter's park.
Cole Carrigg (COL) (89) vs LHP Carson Palmquist: a solid bat at .247 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), hitter's park.
José Tena (WSH) (88) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .245 into an arm tough on the same side (.171), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Shea Langeliers (ATH) (88) vs LHP Kohl Drake: a strong bat at .268 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
James Wood (WSH) (88) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .236 into an arm tough on the same side (.171), hitter's park.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Luis Castillo has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN).
LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Mike Trout (LAA).
RHP Kumar Rocker has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Braden Montgomery (CWS), and Munetaka Murakami (CWS).
RHP Walker Buehler has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).

Platoon edges to target

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .234 against righties this year.
Jacob Wilson (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year.
Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year.
Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .254 against lefties this year.
Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .298 against lefties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Jacob Wilson (ATH), Shea Langeliers (ATH), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Heliot Ramos (SF), and Chase DeLauter (CLE). Cold but due to bounce back: José Tena (WSH), Mike Trout (LAA), TJ Rumfield (COL), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Justin Foscue (TEX).

How it played out

10 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Elly De La Cruz finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Tuesday, July 21, 2026: Elly De La Cruz (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Jacob Wilson (95), Luis García Jr. (91), Cole Carrigg (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, July 21, 2026?: Yes — Elly De La Cruz got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .234 against righties this year. Jacob Wilson (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year. Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year. Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .254 against lefties this year. Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .298 against lefties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Luis Castillo has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Mike Trout (LAA). RHP Kumar Rocker has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Braden Montgomery (CWS), and Munetaka Murakami (CWS). RHP Walker Buehler has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Jacob Wilson (ATH), Shea Langeliers (ATH), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Heliot Ramos (SF), and Chase DeLauter (CLE). Cold but due to bounce back: José Tena (WSH), Mike Trout (LAA), TJ Rumfield (COL), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Justin Foscue (TEX).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays