Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, July 20, 2026
Top hits spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The lefty is hitting .233 H/PA against lefties this year — and .250 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 24% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .423 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Kyle Freeland, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (89) vs LHP Andrew Alvarez: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (88) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.583), hot bat.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (82) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a solid bat at .241 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.583).
- Curtis Mead (WSH) (81) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .253 into an arm tough on the same side (.191), hitter's park.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (75) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .234 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.423), hitter's park.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (74) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .268 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
- Ernie Clement (TOR) (71) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been getting tattooed by lefties — .324 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Tommy Edman (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties — .293 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Curtis Mead (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
- LHP Andrew Alvarez has been giving up plenty to lefties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Cole Carrigg (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL).
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jac Caglianone (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).
Platoon edges to target
- Tommy Edman (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .308 against lefties this year.
- Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .228 against lefties this year.
- Curtis Mead (WSH) — righty bat vs LHP, .237 against lefties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .269 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: James Wood (WSH) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Tommy Edman (LAD), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Steven Kwan (CLE), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU). Cold but due to bounce back: James Wood (WSH), Ozzie Albies (ATL), Mookie Betts (LAD), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and Sam Antonacci (CWS).
How it played out
1 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.