Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, July 20, 2026
Top hits spot: Nolan Schanuel
Nolan Schanuel (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kyle Leahy. The lefty is hitting .269 H/PA against righties this year — and .400 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Kyle Leahy has been tough on righties lately — .125 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Kyle Leahy, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .243 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.423), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (95) vs RHP George Kirby: a strong bat at .258 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (89) vs LHP Andrew Alvarez: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (89) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .248 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.267).
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (88) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.583), hot bat.
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (87) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a solid bat at .247 into an arm tough on the same side (.125), hot bat.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (83) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm tough on the same side (.125).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been getting tattooed by lefties — .324 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Tommy Edman (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties — .293 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Curtis Mead (WSH), and CJ Abrams (WSH).
- LHP Andrew Alvarez has been giving up plenty to lefties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Cole Carrigg (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL).
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jac Caglianone (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).
Platoon edges to target
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .269 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .238 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .271 against lefties this year.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .308 against lefties this year.
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .234 against lefties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: James Wood (WSH) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Jake McCarthy (COL), Tommy Edman (LAD), Jacob Wilson (ATH), Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (ATH), and Jordan Walker (STL). Cold but due to bounce back: James Wood (WSH), Ozzie Albies (ATL), Mookie Betts (LAD), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and Sam Antonacci (CWS).
How it played out
9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Nolan Schanuel finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits board is
The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
- The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
- Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish the WizLine as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.
How to use it
Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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