Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Top hits spot: Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cade Cavalli. The lefty is hitting .259 H/PA against righties this year — and .304 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Cade Cavalli has been tough on righties lately — .185 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Cade Cavalli. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (99) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.227), hot bat.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (91) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .254 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- James Wood (WSH) (88) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .236 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Nick Gonzales (PIT) (87) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: a strong bat at .266 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.261), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (84) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm tough on the same side (.176), hot bat.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (84) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .262 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (84) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm tough on the same side (.154), due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Dean Kremer has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Anthony Seigler (BOS), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
- LHP Tyler Alexander has been vulnerable to lefties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Andrew Benintendi (CWS), and Munetaka Murakami (CWS).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .218 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Jacob Wilson (ATH), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Ben Rice (NYY), and Trea Turner (PHI). Cold but due to bounce back: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Anthony Seigler (BOS), Casey Schmitt (SF), Austin Martin (MIN), and Kyle Schwarber (PHI).
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.