Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026
Top rbis spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The lefty is driving in runs at .174 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 16% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been giving up runs to righties lately — .121 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .186 in 59 career PA against Aaron Nola, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (90) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .148 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Bo Bichette (NYM) (64) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .123 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.067), due to bounce back.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (64) vs RHP Christian Scott: a strong bat at .121 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) (58) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .107 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.121).
- J.T. Realmuto (PHI) (58) vs RHP Christian Scott: a strong bat at .137 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) (53) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .110 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.121).
- Jorge Polanco (NYM) (52) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .120 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.121).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .174 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .129 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .105 against righties this year.
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays