Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Monday, September 21, 2026
Top rbis spot: Kody Clemens
Kody Clemens (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Blade Tidwell. The lefty is driving in runs at .134 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .172 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 14% of his trips. And Blade Tidwell has been getting lit up by righties lately — .208 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Blade Tidwell. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter.
The rest of the top of the board
- Josh Bell (MIN) (95) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Walker Jenkins (MIN) (94) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208), hitter's park.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (91) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: an elite bat at .181 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) (86) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208), hitter's park, hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (77) vs RHP River Ryan: a strong bat at .122 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) (64) vs RHP Shane Baz: an excellent bat at .149 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Victor Caratini (MIN) (62) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208), hitter's park.
Platoon edges to target
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.
- Josh Bell (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .128 against righties this year.
- Walker Jenkins (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .128 against righties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Kody Clemens (MIN) at 100.
Lineup watch
54 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays