Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Top rbis spot: Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is driving in runs at .192 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .267 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 15% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .188 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .293 in 58 career PA against Kyle Freeland. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (90) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.188), hitter's park.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (87) vs RHP Anthony Molina: a strong bat at .139 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (86) vs RHP Andre Pallante: an elite bat at .171 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Walker Jenkins (MIN) (85) vs RHP Anthony Molina: a strong bat at .130 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Josh Bell (MIN) (85) vs RHP Anthony Molina: a strong bat at .130 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (82) vs RHP Michael Soroka: a strong bat at .138 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (78) vs RHP Max Scherzer: an elite bat at .181 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .192 against lefties this year.
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .194 against lefties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .173 against righties this year.
- Walker Jenkins (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
- Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+18% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ketel Marte (AZ) at 100.
- Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Kody Clemens (MIN) at 87.
- PNC Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Brandon Lowe (PIT) at 86.
- UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Teoscar Hernández (LAD) at 50.
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays