Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is scoring at .219 R/PA against righties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .086 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Michael Lorenzen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (95) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (92) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.381).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (91) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214), hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (88) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.381).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (83) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a solid bat at .129 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.056), hot bat.
- Kyle Karros (COL) (81) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (81) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.474).
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .219 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .173 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .180 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .190 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.