Who has the best runs matchup today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Tuesday, July 21, 2026: Elly De La Cruz (100), James Wood (100), Sam Antonacci (95), Gabriel Moreno (91), Munetaka Murakami (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Tuesday, July 21, 2026?

Yes — Elly De La Cruz got 1 run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .155 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .221 against righties this year. Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .178 against righties this year. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .195 against righties this year. Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ run, against 48% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 48%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 47%

Full slate

90/23438%

season 38%

Top call Elly De La Cruz came through. Sam Antonacci didn't.

Final · 2–5

MINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup60 Final · 2–1

LADaway

PHIhomeTop matchup58 Final · 12–2

TBaway

TORhomeTop matchup75 Final · 8–3

SDaway

ATLhomeTop matchup78 Final · 4–0

NYMaway

MILhomeTop matchup54 Final · 2–3

SFaway

KChomeTop matchup63 Final · 2–11

DETaway

CHChomeTop matchup82 Final · 0–10

CWSaway

TEXhomeTop matchup95 Final · 3–5

MIAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup64 Final · 7–8

WSHaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–5

STLaway

LAAhomeTop matchup82 Final · 5–6

ATHaway

AZhomeTop matchup91 Final · 4–2

CINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting60 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 294 shownScore

92 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsDET· 2-for-3
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #198
2
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsATH· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #4
T2
Yandy DíazDH
TB@TOR· 2-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #13
T2
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@COL· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #27
T2
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsCWS· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #37
T2
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsMIA· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #39
T2
José TenaDH
WSH@COL· 1-for-2
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #42
T2
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsWSH· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #43
T2
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsWSH· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #77
T2
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@ATL· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #103
T2
Ben Williamson2B
TB@TOR· 4-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #110
T2
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsCWS· 4-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #119
T2
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@TOR· 2-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #132
T2
Manny Machado3B
SD@ATL· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #146
T2
Nick FortesC
TB@TOR· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #150
T2
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsCWS· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #228
17
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@SEA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #1
T17
James WoodRF
WSH@COL· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.7 R, #2
T17
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsATH· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #9
T17
Jake McCarthyCF
COLvsWSH· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #15
T17
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsATH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #16
T17
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #18
T17
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #21
T17
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #26
T17
Junior Caminero3B
TB@TOR· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #29
T17
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #36
T17
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsMIA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #45
T17
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #46
T17
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@TOR· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #50
T17
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@MIL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #53
T17
Nathaniel LoweDH
CIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #56
T17
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsMIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #59
T17
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #61
T17
Otto LopezSS
MIA@HOU· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #62
T17
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #66
T17
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #67
T17
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #71
T17
Willi Castro2B
COLvsWSH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #73
T17
Max KeplerLF
AZvsATH· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #75
T17
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #87
T17
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsDET· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #88
T17
Carter JensenC
KCvsSF· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #91
T17
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@CHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #96
T17
George SpringerDH
TORvsTB· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #98
T17
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsSTL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #101
T17
Andy PagesCF
LAD@PHI· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #105
T17
Dillon DinglerC
DET@CHC· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #106
T17
Carson KellyC
CHCvsDET· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #107
T17
Keibert RuizC
WSH@COL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #113
T17
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #114
T17
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsSD· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #115
T17
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@COL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #116
T17
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOUvsMIA· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #117
T17
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@ATL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #118
T17
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsMIA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #123
T17
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsTB· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #125
T17
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsLAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #126
T17
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsDET· 2-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #130
T17
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@CLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #133
T17
Brewer HicklenCF
ATLvsSD· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #134
T17
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsWSH· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #137
T17
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsSF· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #138
T17
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@MIL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #140
T17
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@MIL· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #141
T17
Joe MackC
MIA@HOU· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #144
T17
Jesus RodriguezC
SF@KC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #154
T17
Josh BellDH
MIN@CLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #157
T17
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsMIN· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #158
T17
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@LAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #160
T17
Drew GilbertCF
SF@KC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #164
T17
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsATH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #166
T17
Max Muncy3B
LAD@PHI· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #168
T17
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@TOR· 4-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #177
T17
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@ATL· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #180
T17
Jim JarvisSS
ATLvsSD· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #181
T17
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsMIN· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #186
T17
TJ FriedlCF
CIN@SEA· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #188
T17
Taylor WallsSS
TB@TOR· 0-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #194
T17
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #197
T17
Cam CauleyCF
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #200
T17
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsCWS· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #202
T17
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #210
T17
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #212
T17
Ian HappLF
CHCvsDET· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #215
T17
Elias DíazC
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #216
T17
Luis RengifoLF
SD@ATL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #220
T17
Jared Young1B
NYM@MIL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #222
T17
Weston Wilson3B
SEAvsCIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #229
T17
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@HOU· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #230
T17
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@ATL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #232
T17
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsCIN· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T17
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsSF· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) is the top runs matchup on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 board at 100, with James Wood (WSH) and Sam Antonacci (CWS) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. The lefty is scoring at .155 R/PA against righties this year — and .194 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Luis Castillo has been getting lit up by righties lately — .210 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Luis Castillo, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

James Wood (WSH) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an elite bat at .171 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.086).
Sam Antonacci (CWS) (95) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.667).
Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (91) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167).
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (91) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.667).
Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (88) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
Zach Neto (LAA) (82) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .132 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Gleyber Torres (DET) (82) vs LHP David Peterson: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).

Platoon edges to target

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .155 against righties this year.
James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .221 against righties this year.
Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .178 against righties this year.
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .195 against righties this year.
Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.

How it played out

4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Elly De La Cruz finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Tuesday, July 21, 2026: Elly De La Cruz (100), James Wood (100), Sam Antonacci (95), Gabriel Moreno (91), Munetaka Murakami (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Tuesday, July 21, 2026?: Yes — Elly De La Cruz got 1 run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .155 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .221 against righties this year. Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .178 against righties this year. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .195 against righties this year. Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays