Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, July 20, 2026
Top runs spot: Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jeffrey Springs. The righty is scoring at .187 R/PA against lefties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Jeffrey Springs has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .333 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 4 career PA against Jeffrey Springs, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Curtis Mead (WSH) (95) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.238).
- James Wood (WSH) (88) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192), due to bounce back.
- Andrés Chaparro (WSH) (88) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .123 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.238).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (84) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: a strong bat at .136 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (83) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a league-average bat at .112 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Dylan Crews (WSH) (83) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.238).
- Tim Tawa (AZ) (81) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .117 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
Platoon edges to target
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .187 against lefties this year.
- Curtis Mead (WSH) — righty bat vs LHP, .160 against lefties this year.
- Andrés Chaparro (WSH) — righty bat vs LHP, .164 against lefties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .081 against lefties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.