Best MLB Walks Matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026
Top walks spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The lefty is working counts at .181 BB/PA against righties this year — and .167 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 15% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .200 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Shane Bieber too — .500 across 8 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (100) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .132 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.135).
- James Wood (WSH) (90) vs RHP Aaron Nola: an elite bat at .154 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.125), due to bounce back.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (81) vs RHP Michael King: a solid bat at .095 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.135).
- Max Kepler (AZ) (76) vs RHP Michael King: a strong bat at .102 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.135), due to bounce back.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (76) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .113 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.083), hot bat.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (71) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: a strong bat at .108 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.174), due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (67) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: a strong bat at .106 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.174), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .198 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .117 against righties this year.
- Max Kepler (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .095 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 2 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays