Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Top walks spot: JJ Bleday
JJ Bleday (CIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP J.T. Ginn. The lefty is working counts at .146 BB/PA against righties this year — and .173 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And J.T. Ginn has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against J.T. Ginn. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: an excellent bat at .146 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.114).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (86) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a solid bat at .085 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (82) vs RHP Grant Holmes: a strong bat at .108 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.150).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (79) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: an excellent bat at .134 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.105).
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (78) vs RHP Grant Holmes: a strong bat at .105 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.150).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (77) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a league-average bat at .080 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.176).
- Evan Carter (TEX) (75) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .101 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .129 against righties this year.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .099 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.