Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, August 14, 2026
Top walks spot: Ben Rice
Ben Rice (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The lefty is working counts at .151 BB/PA against righties this year — and .229 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 14% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .154 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Shane Bieber. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Carter Jensen (KC) (88) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .111 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.125), due to bounce back.
- Nick Sogard (BOS) (87) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an excellent bat at .135 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.125).
- Willi Castro (COL) (85) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .102 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.231).
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (85) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .092 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.154), hot bat.
- Spencer Jones (NYY) (81) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .100 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.154).
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) (80) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a strong bat at .112 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.154).
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) (79) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an excellent bat at .128 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.188).
Platoon edges to target
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .112 against righties this year.
- Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .105 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .125 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Ben Rice finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays