Best MLB Walks Matchups — Thursday, August 13, 2026
Top walks spot: Joc Pederson
Joc Pederson (TEX) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Walbert Ureña. The lefty is working counts at .121 BB/PA against righties this year — and .176 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 12% of his trips. And Walbert Ureña has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .143 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Walbert Ureña, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (92) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an excellent bat at .147 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.129).
- Nick Sogard (BOS) (85) vs RHP Max Scherzer: an excellent bat at .131 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.038).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (84) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an excellent bat at .147 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.129).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (79) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: a solid bat at .097 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143).
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (78) vs RHP Max Scherzer: a strong bat at .108 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.038).
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) (77) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.146).
- JJ Bleday (CIN) (75) vs RHP Davis Martin: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.108), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .121 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .159 against righties this year.
- Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .169 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .114 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Joc Pederson finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays