Best MLB Walks Matchups — Monday, October 5, 2026
Top walks spot: Ben Rice
Ben Rice (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Freddy Peralta. The lefty is working counts at .150 BB/PA against righties this year — and .273 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And Freddy Peralta has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Freddy Peralta too — .400 across 5 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (85) vs RHP Gavin Williams: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm around league average against the same side (.087), due to bounce back.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (70) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .132 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (70) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a strong bat at .107 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.167).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (64) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a strong bat at .102 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Liam Hicks (TB) (61) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: a solid bat at .098 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.136).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (58) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: a solid bat at .088 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.136).
- Cody Bellinger (NYY) (52) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a solid bat at .090 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .132 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .105 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .102 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
36 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays