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Bundesliga Match Board — Saturday, September 5, 2026

Every Bundesliga match on Saturday, September 5, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, September 5, 2026 · how the model graded
2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 40 of 45 on ML, 19 of 45 on Over 2.5, 40 of 45 on BTTS.

Saturday, September 5

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 4–0
Proj2.4–1.2
Match page →
B04Bayer LeverkusenHOME✓63%2.4proj-173fair-189mkt-2.1%
Draw20%—proj+398fair+424mkt+1.0%
FCU1. FC Union BerlinAWAY17%1.2proj+503fair+535mkt+0.9%
O2.5 69% ✓BTTS 64% · mkt 60% ✗1H O1.5 48% ✗
Fandango
FT · 3–4
Proj1.8–1.4
Match page →
BMGBorussia MönchengladbachHOME✗46%1.8proj+116fair-102mkt-4.0%
Draw25%—proj+307fair+300mkt-0.4%
ELVSV ElversbergAWAY29%1.4proj+244fair+304mktModel lean+4.3%
O2.5 64% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 62% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✗
Fandango
FT · 0–1
Proj1.8–1.1
Match page →
SCPSC Paderborn 07HOME✗51%1.8proj-105fair+264mktModel lean+23.8%
Draw26%—proj+288fair+288mkt+0.0%
SCFSC FreiburgAWAY23%1.1proj+335fair+112mkt-24.1%
O2.5 55% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 57% · mkt 61% ✗1H O1.5 37% ✓
Fandango
FT · 2–3
Proj1.8–1.4
Match page →
TSGTSG HoffenheimHOME✗46%1.8proj+116fair+205mktModel lean+13.5%
Draw25%—proj+296fair+300mkt+0.3%
DORBorussia DortmundAWAY28%1.4proj+252fair+136mkt-14.0%
O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 63% · mkt 68% ✓1H O1.5 41% ✓
Fandango
FT · 3–1
Proj1.7–1.6
Match page →
SVWWerder BremenHOME✓39%1.7proj+157fair+336mktModel lean+16.0%
Draw25%—proj+295fair+336mkt+2.4%
RBLRB LeipzigAWAY36%1.6proj+180fair-118mkt-18.4%
O2.5 63% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 64% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✓
Fandango
FT · 0–0
Proj1.3–2.6
Match page →
S04Schalke 04HOME17%1.3proj+485fair+1184mktModel lean+9.3%
Draw19%—proj+438fair+767mktModel lean+7.1%
MUNBayern MunichAWAY✗64%2.6proj-180fair-420mkt-16.5%
O2.5 76% ✗BTTS 69% · mkt 55% ✗1H O1.5 53% ✗
USA Net

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).