Premier League Match Board — Monday, August 24, 2026

Every Premier League match on Monday, August 24, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Monday, August 24, 2026 · how the model graded

ML0-1−1.0u

Over 2.51-0+0.9u

BTTS1-0+0.8u

Season · all graded matchesFull ledger →

ML15-15+8.8u

Over 2.519-11+3.5u

BTTS18-12+2.0u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 27 of 30 on Over 2.5.

Monday, August 24

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 2–3

Proj1.6–1.1

Match page →

FulhamHOME✗48%1.6proj+109fair+295mktModel lean+22.4%

Draw27%—proj+273fair+271mkt-0.1%

ChelseaAWAY25%1.1proj+293fair+107mkt-22.8%

O2.5 53% · mkt 53% ✓BTTS 56% · mkt 54% ✓

USA Net · Universo

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).