Premier League Match Board — Sunday, August 30, 2026

Every Premier League match on Sunday, August 30, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML7-2+12.5u

Over 2.56-3+0.1u

BTTS4-5−1.8u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 9 on Over 2.5.

Sunday, August 30

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

9:00 AM ET

Proj1.9–1.0

SUNSunderlandHOME58%1.9proj-136fair+161mktModel lean+19.3%

DRWDraw24%—proj+314fair+241mkt-5.2%

FULFulhamAWAY18%1.0proj+450fair+209mkt-14.2%

O2.5 55% · mkt 46%BTTS 55%

9:00 AM ET

Proj1.8–1.2

LEELeeds UnitedHOME50%1.8proj+100fair+164mktModel lean+12.1%

DRWDraw25%—proj+296fair+260mkt-2.6%

BREBrentfordAWAY25%1.2proj+302fair+191mkt-9.5%

O2.5 58% · mkt 50%BTTS 60%

9:00 AM ET

Proj1.8–1.3

CHEChelseaHOME48%1.8proj+109fair+107mkt-0.3%

DRWDraw25%—proj+301fair+294mkt-0.4%

BHABrighton & Hove AlbionAWAY27%1.3proj+269fair+278mkt+0.7%

O2.5 61% · mkt 55%BTTS 63%

11:30 AM ET

Proj2.3–1.3

MANManchester UnitedHOME60%2.3proj-147fair-194mkt-6.4%

DRWDraw21%—proj+373fair+407mkt+1.4%

IPSIpswich TownAWAY19%1.3proj+417fair+594mktModel lean+4.9%

O2.5 69% · mkt 59%BTTS 65%

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).