La Liga Match Board — Saturday, August 15, 2026

Every La Liga match on Saturday, August 15, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, August 15, 2026 · how the model graded

ML2-0+3.0u

Over 2.50-2−1.0u

BTTS1-1−0.4u

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Saturday, August 15

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 3–0

Proj1.2–0.8

ALAAlavésHOME✓46%1.2proj+119fair+148mktModel lean+5.2%

DRWDraw32%—proj+213fair+193mkt-2.1%

GETGetafeAWAY22%0.8proj+346fair+282mkt-3.7%

O2.5 34% ✗BTTS 40% · mkt 39% ✓

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 2–1

Proj1.4–0.9

SEVSevillaHOME✓47%1.4proj+114fair+160mktModel lean+8.1%

DRWDraw29%—proj+239fair+214mkt-2.4%

RAYRayo VallecanoAWAY24%0.9proj+319fair+235mkt-6.0%

O2.5 42% · mkt 40% ✗BTTS 48% · mkt 49% ✗

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).