La Liga Match Board — Monday, August 17, 2026

Every La Liga match on Monday, August 17, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Monday, August 17, 2026 · how the model graded

ML0-1−1.0u

Over 2.51-0+0.6u

BTTS1-0+0.9u

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Monday, August 17

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 1–1

Proj1.6–1.0

DEPDeportivoHOME✗48%1.6proj+107fair+141mktModel lean+6.9%

DRWDraw28%—proj+261fair+217mkt-3.8%

ELCElcheAWAY24%1.0proj+319fair+279mkt-2.5%

O2.5 48% · mkt 41% ✓BTTS 52% · mkt 49% ✓

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).