La Liga Match Board — Monday, September 14, 2026

Every La Liga match on Monday, September 14, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 31 of 39 on Over 2.5.

Monday, September 14

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

3:00 PM ET

Proj1.6–1.2

Match page →

VillarrealHOME46%1.6proj+117fair-100mkt-4.0%

Draw27%—proj+269fair+302mkt+2.2%

Real BetisAWAY27%1.2proj+273fair+300mkt+1.8%

O2.5 52% · mkt 59%BTTS 56%

ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).