La Liga Match Board — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Every La Liga match on Wednesday, September 16, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Wednesday, September 16

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

2:00 PM ET

Alavésvs

Valencia

Mendizorrotza · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:00 PM ET

Atlético Madridvs OSA

Osasuna

Riyadh Air Metropolitano · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:00 PM ET

Barcelonavs RAC

Racing Santander

Spotify Camp Nou · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:00 PM ET

Deportivovs SEV

Sevilla

Riazor · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:00 PM ET

Elchevs

Real Madrid

Estadio Martínez Valero · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:00 PM ET

Levantevs

Athletic Club

Estadi Ciutat de València · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:00 PM ET

Málagavs

Villarreal

La Rosaleda · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:00 PM ET

Rayo Vallecanovs ESP

Espanyol

Estadio de Vallecas · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

2:00 PM ET

Real Betisvs GET

Getafe

Estadio La Cartuja · Model line lands closer to kickoff.

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).