La Liga 1+ Shots Board
Every player on the slate ranked by our 1+ shots number — over the line the books hang — volume shooters vs soft defenses rise here. Boards freeze at kickoff and grade against the box score.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. La Liga props are priced off actual goals, not xG, by a brand-new model with no track record — nothing here is a pick. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
- 1
Pablo FornalsTue 3:00 PM77%Books -350-0.7%MatchWiz -336 - 2
Hugo DuroTue 3:00 PM73%Books -2000-22.0%MatchWiz -274 - 3Marc RocaTue 3:00 PM72%Books -175+8.0%MatchWiz -252
- 4Luis RiojaTue 3:00 PM60%Books -800-28.5%MatchWiz -152
- 5Nelson DeossaTue 3:00 PM59%Books -700-28.4%MatchWiz -144
- 6PepeluTue 3:00 PM56%Books -320-20.2%MatchWiz -127
- 7André AlmeidaTue 3:00 PM54%Books -340-23.2%MatchWiz -118
- 8Marc BartraTue 3:00 PM42%Books -130-14.1%MatchWiz +136
- 9Valentín GómezTue 3:00 PM42%Books +120-3.3%MatchWiz +137
- 10NatanTue 3:00 PM38%Books +125-6.6%MatchWiz +164
- 11Junior FirpoTue 3:00 PM36%Books -210-32.1%MatchWiz +180
- 12Pablo GarcíaTue 3:00 PM35%Books -1100-56.7%MatchWiz +186
- 13Dimitri FoulquierTue 3:00 PM35%Books +140-7.0%MatchWiz +189
- 14Mouctar DiakhabyTue 3:00 PM34%Books -120-20.3%MatchWiz +192
- 15Héctor BellerínTue 3:00 PM34%Books +125-10.2%MatchWiz +192
- 16Javier GuerraTue 3:00 PM33%Books -425-47.8%MatchWiz +202
- 17Filip UgrinicTue 3:00 PM30%Books -800-59.3%MatchWiz +238
- 18César TárregaTue 3:00 PM27%Books -110-25.7%MatchWiz +275
- 19José GayàTue 3:00 PM26%Books -140-31.8%MatchWiz +278
- 20Diego LlorenteTue 3:00 PM25%Books -105-26.7%MatchWiz +308
- 21Jesús VázquezTue 3:00 PM13%Books -290-61.1%MatchWiz +656
- 22Ángel OrtizTue 3:00 PM10%Books +115-36.9%MatchWiz +941
MatchWiz = the odds our probability implies (per-game rates × projected minutes × matchup). Books = the best available price across the books we track. Lines move — always confirm at the book. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).