Ligue 1 Match Board — Saturday, August 29, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Saturday, August 29, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML2-7−4.6u

Over 2.56-3+0.7u

BTTS2-7−6.3u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 9 on ML, 7 of 9 on Over 2.5, 8 of 9 on BTTS.

Saturday, August 29

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

11:15 AM ET

Proj1.5–1.7

STRStrasbourgHOME34%1.5proj+195fair+251mktModel lean+5.5%

DRWDraw26%—proj+291fair+267mkt-1.7%

RCLLensAWAY41%1.7proj+147fair+122mkt-4.5%

O2.5 61% · mkt 57%BTTS 64%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.6–1.1

AUXAJ AuxerreHOME48%1.6proj+109fair+103mkt-1.3%

DRWDraw27%—proj+266fair+266mkt+0.1%

ANGAngersAWAY25%1.1proj+304fair+327mkt+1.3%

O2.5 50% · mkt 46%BTTS 54%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.7–1.2

BREBrestHOME47%1.7proj+113fair+176mktModel lean+10.8%

DRWDraw26%—proj+279fair+256mkt-1.7%

TOUToulouseAWAY27%1.2proj+276fair+180mkt-9.1%

O2.5 55% · mkt 48%BTTS 58%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.1–0.9

LORLorientHOME38%1.1proj+162fair-103mkt-12.6%

DRWDraw33%—proj+199fair+275mktModel lean+6.8%

TRYTroyesAWAY28%0.9proj+252fair+341mktModel lean+5.7%

O2.5 32% · mkt 47%BTTS 41%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.8–0.8

LYONLyonHOME61%1.8proj-157fair-176mkt-2.7%

DRWDraw25%—proj+306fair+372mkt+3.4%

HACLe Havre ACAWAY14%0.8proj+600fair+584mkt-0.3%

O2.5 47% · mkt 54%BTTS 46%

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).