Ligue 1 Match Board — Sunday, August 30, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Sunday, August 30, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML2-7−4.6u

Over 2.56-3+0.7u

BTTS2-7−6.3u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 9 on ML, 7 of 9 on Over 2.5, 8 of 9 on BTTS.

Sunday, August 30

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

9:00 AM ET

Proj1.6–1.2

PARParis FCHOME45%1.6proj+124fair+122mkt-0.4%

DRWDraw27%—proj+264fair+259mkt-0.4%

NICENiceAWAY28%1.2proj+259fair+270mkt+0.8%

O2.5 52% · mkt 44%BTTS 56%

11:15 AM ET

Proj2.2–1.3

RENStade RennaisHOME56%2.2proj-130fair—mkt—

DRWDraw22%—proj+357fair—mkt—

MNSLe MansAWAY22%1.3proj+362fair—mkt—

O2.5 69%BTTS 66%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.2–1.6

MONAS MonacoHOME29%1.2proj+243fair+170mkt-7.8%

DRWDraw27%—proj+266fair+292mkt+1.8%

OLMMarseilleAWAY44%1.6proj+130fair+166mktModel lean+5.9%

O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).